Posted by
David C. Arbour on Sunday, November 23, 2008 2:38:26 AM
Then came the global economic meltdown, and suddenly that
struggle became an impossibility.
Late last month,
the small Christian college with just 280 students and $4 million in
debt announced it would have to shut down at the end of the current
academic year.
"Our hearts would have said we would
like to continue trying," said Cascade President Bill Goad, somberly
adding he never imagined his duties would include shutting the school
down. But on top of their long-term challenges, "small colleges like
Cascade just don't have the slack to survive those kinds of impacts,"
he said.
Colleges are remarkably resilient
institutions. Princeton University's Nassau Hall still bears the
cannonball marks from the Revolutionary War battle that raged near
campus. Dickinson and Bowdoin colleges saw their first buildings burn
down, as did the University of Vermont, which also survived its first
president going insane.
Still, every year, a handful
of institutions go under. And while a wave of college closings is
unlikely, the current economic turmoil could accelerate the
pace.
In addition to Cascade, another Christian
institution, Taylor University, announced last month it would close the
undergraduate program at a branch campus in Fort Wayne, Ind., while
Pillsbury Baptist Bible College in Owatonna, Minn. announced plans to
close.
And on Wednesday, Vennard College, a Christian
school in Iowa that was down to about 80 students, announced it would
close at the end of the current semester - two years shy of its 100th
birthday.
If more college closing announcements come,
it would likely be next semester, or next fall, when schools find out
how many of their students don't return.
"We've seen
what's happened to family income, the financial assets of so many
families," said Matt Hamill, senior vice president of NACUBO, a college
business officers group. The key question is "how that will manifest
itself when it comes time to enroll next fall."
There
are about 4,400 colleges in the United States, and the American Council
on Education has records show that only four closed in
2007.
Mergers are somewhat more common, but outright
closing rare for several reasons. Nonprofit colleges don't have to
please Wall Street, and many have endowments they can tap in
emergencies. They also have an enviable business model. Students pay up
front, often with large government subsidies. And colleges sell a
product - education - that families have proved willing to pay more and
more for each year, notes Roger Goodman, who analyzes college finances
for Moody's Investors Service.
Still, even before the
economic crisis, many small colleges were battling long-term
challenges, from demographic changes away from the Midwest and
Northeast, where many schools are located, to the perpetual difficulty
of making the case that they are worth the extra cost over a state
school.
While 76 institutions had endowments over $1
billion last year, according to NACUBO figures, about one-third had
less than $50 million - even before the downturn. And NACUBO reports
figures only from about 800 colleges; the rest have zero or negligible
extra cash.
Some colleges - like American consumers
and homeowners - may discover they took on more debt than they should
have, lured by low interest rates and ambitious growth plans. Moody's
figures on private colleges show median debt up 50 percent over the
last five years.
That didn't look like a problem,
since revenue and donations have also been rising. But in recent
months, like homeowners stuck in a variable-rate mortgage, some schools
have seen their debt payments surge, thanks to the collapse of a
complicated line of dominos that includes bond insurers and banks.
Instead of holding long-term debt at lower interest rates, they have
gotten stuck with short-term obligations at higher rates - a scenario
they knew existed on paper but never expected to
happen.
Others have become collateral damage from the
collapse of Wall Street firms. Simmons College in Boston was placed on
a watch list for a ratings downgrade because of an estimated $10
million exposure in a complex interest rate swap deal with now-bankrupt
Lehman Brothers.
The financial crisis is "clearly
very serious," said Paul Corts, president of the Council for Christian
Colleges & Universities. "I think people are sensing that this is
not short-term. It's something that's going to take a couple of years
to play out."
Enrollment at the 102 CCCU campuses
grew 71 percent between 1990 and 2004, and Corts says he has no reason
to believe member schools will close. But, "then again nobody knows
what the ultimate extent of this whole financial crisis is going to
be," he said.
Another potentially vulnerable group is
historically black colleges, which, like Christian schools, have a
limited recruiting pool. Some such institutions, like Morehouse and
Spelman, have healthy endowments.
But others are more
fragile, especially those with low graduation rates. Banks are
tightening up credit standards, and increasingly denying students at
schools where students are too likely to drop out. The Journal of
Blacks in Higher Education has reported that there are 23 historically
black colleges where more than two-thirds of entering black students
fail to earn a diploma.
At St. Paul's College in
Lawrenceville, Va., the graduation rate fell from about one-third to
under 10 percent between 2002 and 2006, according to federal numbers
collected by the group The Education Trust. President Robert Satcher
said that number is higher now, but acknowledged the school faces
serious financial challenges. It needs to add at least another 200
students to reach its goal of 1,000, and somehow despite the downturn
must raise money to boost its tiny $4.5 million
endowment.
Some students haven't been paying bills,
and St. Paul's is bracing for a cut in grants the state of Virginia
offers to students.
"I am confident we'll be able to
survive," Satcher said. But he added, "There's going to be some
difficult days ahead."
All colleges contribute to the
colorful tapestry of American higher education, and something is lost
when they disappear.
Goad said "micro-colleges" like
Cascade, which was a branch campus of Oklahoma Christian University,
offer students a level of personal mentoring that students often don't
find at other schools. When they close, there's also a loss for the
faith communities they are affiliated with - in Cascade's case, the
Churches of Christ.
But Cascade would have needed a
base of 500 students to survive, and endowment 10 times its current
$1.5 million.